Can animals predict earthquakes?

Most animals show increased restlessness before an earthquake.

Govindpur in Jharkhand animals were nervous before earthquake.

by

Dr. Nitish Priyadarshi

Picture credit: animalsandearthquakes.com/etho-g5.gif
In order to reduce the risk of an earthquake and reduce and mitigate its effects, it is necessary to predict where and when a future, large earthquake may occur. For example, it would be important to know when such an earthquake will hit, where it will strike, and what the level of its destructiveness may be. Earthquake prediction at the present time is not an exact science, and forecasts of earthquake occurrences have not been very accurate. Presently predictions are given in statistical terms. For example, when a prediction is made that :here is a 90% chance that an earthquake will occur in the next 50 years", it does not mean that this earthquake cannot happen tomorrow or it may not be delayed by 50 years. Thus, present predictions are not within a reasonable time frame that can be of usefulness to planners, policy makers, and those in government that deal with public safety.

Unusual behaviour of animals prior to earthquakes received wide publicity after the Haichang earthquake of February 4, 1975 was successfully predicted in China. The official report was presented by the Chinese delegation at the Inter-governmental meeting convened at UNESCO, Paris in February 1976 which stimulated considerable scientific interest. Prior to this, however, several instances of abnormal animal behaviour were noticed before occurrence of some of the damaging earthquakes in different parts of the world, but they were considered more as historical legend. In Japan, innumerable rats were seen every day in a restaurant in Nagoya city, which suddenly disappeared on the evening prior to the Nobi earthquake of 1891.
Since the beginning of recorded history, observations of unusual animal behavior before earthquakes have been recorded by people from almost all civilizations. The animal behavior reports are often ambiguous and not consistently observed. In folklore, some animals have had more reports of being able to predict earthquakes than others, especially dogs, cats, chickens, horses, and other smaller animals. There have been reports with elephants, as well. Goats, cows, and most larger animals are generally reported as being less able to predict earthquakes.

In 1920, the largest earthquake to hit China with a magnitude of 8.5 occurred in Haiyuan County, Ninghxia Province. According to reports of eyewitnesses, prior to this earthquake, wolves were seen running around in packs, dogs were barking unusually, and sparrows were flying around wildly. It is reported that prior to the 6.8 magnitude earthquake in 1966 in Hsingtai County, Hopei Province, in Northern China, all the dogs at a village near the epicenter had deserted their kennels and thus survived the disaster.

The earliest reference we have to unusual animal behavior prior to a significant earthquake is from Greece in 373 BC.

As early as 1886, a seismologist named Milne had mentioned that dogs escaped from the city of Talcahuano in Chile before an earthquake (1835). Flocks of birds flew inland before the Chilean earthquakes of 1822 and 1835. Monkeys were reported to have become restless a few hours before the Managua earthquake (1972) in Nicaragua. In the Tientsin region of China, chickens refused to enter their dens, tigers became restless, yaks declined to eat and horses and sheep started running restlessly a few hours before the earthquakes of July 18, 1969. Hens and cocks were reported restless about an hour prior to the 1896 Ryukyu earthquake in Japan. In Yugoslavia, birds in zoo started crying before the 1963 earthquake. Deer gathered and cats disappeared from villages in northern Italy two or three hours before a damaging earthquake occurred in 1976. Such observations have also been noticed among animals who live underground, like snakes, insects and worms, and those living in water (fishes).

In Japan, fishes were reported to have disappeared before the Kanto earthquakes of 1923. Just before the 1855 Edo earthquake on November 11, many grass snakes were reported to have come out of the ground near the epicentral area, despite severe cold. Other instances involving fishes have been reported in Japan near north-western coast before the 1896 earthquake and the Tango earthquake of 1927 when abundant fishes were caught near the coast.

An interesting instance of unusual behaviour of dogs (but not of other animals) was reported before the destructive earthquake on November 24, 1976 in Turkey (Toksoz,1979).

Although several destructive earthquakes have occurred in the Himalayan region and elsewhere only one authentic observation of unusual animal behaviour was reported in India. In Govindpur in Jharkhand state of India, on February 19, 1892, animals were noticed to sniff the ground and exhibit nervousness such as dog shows in the presence of an unaccustomed object, while the air had distinctly sulphurous smell an hour before the shock.

During the recent damaging earthquakes in India of Uttarkashi (1991), Latur (1993), Jabalpur (1997), Chamoli (1999) and Bhuj (2001), there were reports of isolated cases of unusual behaviour of pet dogs, but the phenomenon was not observed on a large scale. According to the Chief conservator of forests for the Indian state of Tamil Nadu, a few minutes before the killer tsunami waves generated by an underwater earthquake hit the Indian coastline in December 2004, a herd of 500 blackbucks rushed away from the coastal areas to the safety of a nearby hilltop.

The Group of Earthquakes Research of the Institute of Biophysics, China (1979) carried extensive survey of the animal behaviour before damaging earthquakes occur. Its results are summarized below.
1. Most animals show increased restlessness before an earthquake.
2. The precursor time varies from a few minutes to several days, with increased restlessness at 11 hours which becomes still more marked about 2 to 3 hours before the earthquake. In general, the precursor times of various animals are mostly within 24 hours before the earthquake.
3. These observations have been noticed predominantly in the high intensity or epicentral regions close to active faults.
4. Changes in animal behaviour are observed during earth- quakes of magnitude 5 or more.
5. More intense responses can be noticed with the increase of intensity of earthquakes.

We can easily explain the cause of unusual animal behavior seconds before humans feel an earthquake. Very few humans notice the smaller P wave that travels the fastest from the earthquake source and arrives before the larger S wave. But many animals with more keen senses are able to feel the P wave seconds before the S wave arrives. As for sensing an impending earthquake days or weeks before it occurs, that's a different story.
There is little evidence for animals being able to sense earthquakes before they happen, although it is likely they can sense the initial, weaker P-wave or ultrasonic wave generated by a big underground explosion or the rupture of an earthquake, even if the waves are too small for humans' senses. These waves travel faster than the S-wave and Rayleigh earthquake waves that most strongly shake the ground and causes the most damage. It is speculated that when this happens, animals can detect the incoming earthquake wave, and start behaving agitatedly or nervously.

Others postulate that the animal behavior is simply their response to an increase in low-frequency electromagnetic signals. The University of Colorado has demonstrated that electromagnetic activity can be generated by the fracturing of crystalline rock. Such activity occurs in fault lines before earthquakes. According to one study, electromagnetic sensors yield statistically valid results in predicting earthquakes.

Accounts of similar animal anticipation of earthquakes have surfaced across the centuries since. Catfish moving violently, chickens that stop laying eggs and bees leaving their hive in a panic have been reported. Countless pet owners claimed to have witnessed their cats and dogs acting strangely before the ground shook—barking or whining for no apparent reason, or showing signs of nervousness and restlessness.

But precisely what animals sense, if they feel anything at all, is a mystery. One theory is that wild and domestic creatures feel the Earth vibrate before humans. Other ideas suggest they detect electrical changes in the air or gas released from the Earth.

Geologists, however, dismiss these kinds of reports, saying it's "the psychological focusing effect," where people remember strange behaviors only after an earthquake or other catastrophe has taken place. If nothing had happened, they contend, people would not have remembered the strange behavior.

Reference:

Srivastava, H.N., 1983.Earthquakes. National Book Trust, India.

Toksoz, M.N. 1979. Field investigations of the 24 November 1976 earthquakes in Turkey and its precursors. Int. Symp. Eathq. Pred. (UNESCO, Paris), Abstracts.

http://www.drgeorgepc.com/EarthquakePredictionChina.html
http://earthquake.usgs.gov/learn/topics/animal_eqs.php
http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2003/11/1111_031111_earthquakeanimals.html

Successful Flight Through Enceladus Plume.

The Cassini spacecraft has weathered the Monday, Nov. 2, 2009, flyby of Saturn’s moon Enceladus in good health and has been sending images and data of the encounter back to Earth. Cassini had approached Enceladus more closely before, but this passage took the spacecraft on its deepest plunge yet through the heart of the plume shooting out from the south polar region. Scientists are eagerly sifting through the results.

In this unprocessed image, sunlight brightens a crescent curve along the edge of Saturn's moon Enceladus and highlights its misty plume. The image was captured by Cassini's narrow-angle camera as the spacecraft passed about 190,000 kilometers (120,000 miles) over the moon. This image has not been validated or calibrated. A validated/calibrated image will be archived with the NASA Planetary Data System in 2010.

At its closest point on Nov. 2, Cassini flew about 100 kilometers (60 miles) above the surface of Enceladus.

Since the discovery of the plume in 2005, scientists have been captivated by the enigmatic jets. Previous flybys detected water vapor, sodium and organic molecules, but scientists need to know more about the plume’s composition and density to characterize the source, possibly a liquid ocean under the moon’s icy surface. It would also help them determine whether Enceladus has the conditions necessary for life.

Mission managers did extensive studies to make sure the spacecraft could fly safely through the plumes and not use an excessive amount of propellant.

Khejri Tree can predict earthquakes- says a report.

Khejri plants are available in plenty in desert areas of India.

by

Dr. Nitish Priyadarshi.

Earthquakes present a frightening experience in the lives of the men. The disaster strikes suddenly, similar to that of lightning, tornadoes or nuclear explosions. It is estimated that, on an average, about 15,000 human lives are lost every year, while in a single year of 1976 about 2,00,000 were killed by earthquakes in China, Guatemala, Philippines and in other parts of the world. The damage to property runs into billions of dollars. The growing demand on seismologists to predict earthquakes is therefore, not unjustified.

It is easy to achieve better success in forecasting those disciplines of science which are directly accessible to observations, such as atmosphere. In the case of solid earth, however, difficulties of digging even a few kilometers to reach the focal zone of earthquakes for in situ observations are well known. Nevertheless, a beginning has been made to evolve methods of forecasting earthquakes and limited success has been achieved.

Of the other forecasting methods, plants like Khejri (Prosopis cineraria ) is now catching the eyes of geoscientists. According to a research report in Rajasthan State of India, we can gauge the geological tremors through the leaves of Khejri. In case, the activities under the earth decrease, then the leaves of Khejri trees faint. The geologists say that the loss of life and property can be prevented through the pre-indication of Khejri leaves planted in the earthquake –prone areas. The specialists advise to plant and protect the Khejri tree.

Prosopis cineraria tree grows in dry and arid regions of Arabia and in regions of India mainly Rajasthan, Haryana, Punjab, Gujarat, Western Uttar Pradesh and drier parts of Deccan and extends as far as South in Tuticorin. In this region also it is confined only to comparatively drier areas where the normal annual rainfall is less than 500 mm. In the most important areas of Prosopis cineraria distribution, the climate is dry to arid and rainfall shows considerable variation 100 to 600 mm annually with a long dry season.

But before coming to any conclusion more research is needed on this plant.

Earlier unusual behaviour of the animals prior to earthquake received wide publicity after the Haichang earthquake of February 4, 1975 was successfully predicted in China. In Japan, innumerable rats were seen every day in a restaurant in Nagoya city, which suddenly disappeared on the evening prior to the Nobi earthquake of 1891. As early as 1886, a seismologist named Miline had mentioned that dogs escaped from the city of Talcahuano in Chile before an earthquake of 1835. Flocks of birds flew inland before the Chilean earthquakes of 1822 and 1835.

However, any scientific explanation at present does not appear to be acceptable unless the phenomenon is observed almost universally. Charles Richter once said, “Only fools, charlatans, and liars predict earthquakes.”

Tattooed Mars.

This high-resolution picture from the HiRISE camera on board the Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter shows twisting dark trails criss-crossing light-colored terrain on the Martian surface. Newly formed trails like these had presented researchers with a tantalizing mystery but are now known to be the work of miniature wind vortices known to occur on the red planet, in other words Martian dust devils. Such spinning columns of rising air heated by the warm surface are also common in dry and desert areas on planet Earth. Typically lasting only a few minutes, dust devils become visible as they pick up loose red-colored dust leaving the darker and heavier sand beneath intact. Ironically, dust devils have been credited with unexpectedly cleaning the solar panels of the Mars rovers.

Image Credit: NASA, HiRISE, MRO, LPL (U. Arizona)

झारखण्ड में ध्वस्त होते पर्वत.

अन्गारा का ध्वस्त पहाढ़ एक भुवेज्ञानिक घटना - और भी पहाढ़ हो सकते हैं ध्वस्त ।

डॉ। नितीश प्रियदर्शी

६ अक्टूबर की रात रांची के पास अन्गारा के एक गाँव में २५० फीट ऊँचा पहाढ़ अचानक तेज आवाज के साथ ध्वस्त हो गया। वेसे तो पहाढ़ धसने की घटना विश्व मैं कई जगह होती है जैसे २४ अगस्त को बांग्लादेश के चटगांव में एक ऊँचा पहाढ़ ध्वस्त हो गया। एक हफ्ता पहले बांग्लादेश में ही तन्किर पहाढ़ के ध्वस्त हो जाने से ११ लोग की मृत्यु हो गई । उसी तरह ३ अक्टूबर को अमेरिका के कैलिफोर्निया शहर के पास एक काफी ऊँचा पहाढ़ ध्वस्त हो गया जिसके चलते कई मकानों को नुकसान पहुँचा।

अन्गारा एवं दुसरे जगहों में पवर्तों के ध्वस्त होने के कारणों में असामनता हैं। जहाँ बांग्लादेश में पहाढ़ ध्वस्त होने के पहले भूकंप आया था तथा कैलिफोर्निया में कुछ दिन पहले से पत्थर पर्वत से नीचे आ रहे थे वहीँ अन्गारा में ये सब कारण नदारद थे। यहाँ पहाढ़ अचानक रातों रात ध्वस्त हो गया बिना किसी भूकंप अथवा किसी अन्य भूगर्भीय हलचल के। वेसे विश्व में जहाँ जहाँ ज्वालामुखी विस्फोट होता है वहां पर इस तरह की पहाढ़ गिरने की घटना होती है। लेकिन अन्गारा में पहाढ़ ध्वस्त होने का कारण कुछ और ही लगता है।

रांची के आस पास की बहुत से छोटे एवं मध्यम ऊंचाई के पहाढ़ काफी वृद्ध हो चुके हें तथा वे काफी अपरदित हो चुकें हैं जैसे रांची पहाढ़ , पिठोरिया के पास की कुछ पहाढ़ इत्यादि। यानि ये सब अपरदन के चक्र के अन्तिम चरण में पहुँच चुके हें। पिछले वर्ष रांची पहाढ़ का कुछ हिस्सा भी धंसा था जिससे वहां के लोगों में डर व्याप्त हो गया था।

अन्गारा के पहाढ़ के अचानक ध्वस्त होने का एक ही कारण नजर आता है वह है काफी ज्यादा अपरदन के फलस्वरूप तथा पृथ्वी के गुरुत्वाकर्षण के प्रभाव में पहाढ़ ध्वस्त हो गया। इस को भूविज्ञान की भाषा में "मास वेस्टिंग" कहतें हें जहाँ पहाढ़ पर उपस्थित किसी खास कमजोर स्थान से अचानक मिटटी एवं बोल्डर गुरुत्वाकर्षण के प्रभाव में तेजी से नीचे आवाज करता हुआ घिसकने लगता हें। अन्गारा में जहाँ पर यह धसान हुआ वहां पर कई वृक्ष भी मलबे के अन्दर दब गए।

झारखण्ड में प्रकृति ने अपना संदेश दे दिया है। जरुरत इस बात की है की रांची के आस पास वेसे पहाढ़ की पहचान की जाए जो काफी अपरदित हो चुके हें या जिनके बहुत से भाग मिटटी में परिवर्तित हो चुके हों, एवं उनमे मौजूद चट्टान खतरनाक स्तिथि में टिके हों । ये भी जरुरी है की अपरदित पहाढ़ के आस पास जो आबादी हो उनको इस खतरे से आगाह किया जाए ।

Earthquake hits today Pakistan, Afghanistan and India.

Hindu Kush Mountain

A strong Earthquake rattled northern Pakistan, Afghanistan and India Friday, killing five people and injuring several more.
The quake had a magnitude of 6.2 to 6.4 on the Richter scale, and its epicentre was in the high-altitude Hindu Kush at a depth of about 180 kilometres, Pakistani authorities said.
Pakistani broadcaster Geo News reported that frightened people were seen running into the streets of major cities, including Islamabad, Rawalpindi, Peshawar and Lahore.
At least five people died and several were injured in different areas of Pakistan's remote, mountainous, northern parts.
The earthquake triggered a landslide in the Mirpur region of Pakistan-administered Kashmir and demolished a house and killed three people. Three more were injured.

The temblor also hit the Indian part of Kashmir, causing panic but no casualties or damage.
Residents of the border town of Uri in Baramulla, 80 kilometres west of state capital Srinagar, rushed out of their homes and did not return for a couple of hours out of fear of aftershocks.
Geologists say Kashmir is located in a zone of high seismic activity.Srinagar falls in Seismic Zone-V and other parts of Indian Kashmir in Seismic Zone IV.A high intensity quake measuring 7.4 on the Richter scale with its epicenter in Muzaffarabad in Pakistan-controlled Kashmir shook the region on Oct 8, 2005, causing large scale destruction killing 80,000 people.

It was not only in Pakistan, Afghanistan and India but The U.S. Geological Survey is reporting that three earthquakes struck Thursday night near The Geysers in Sonoma County.
According to the USGS, the first earthquake with a preliminary magnitude of 2.1 struck around 8:55 p.m., and at a depth just under one mile. The quake was centered three miles northeast of The Geysers and 14 miles east of Cloverdale, according to the USGS.
The second earthquake, a 3.2 - magnitude, struck at around 11:45 p.m. and at a depth of 1.9 miles, according to the USGS. The quake was centered three miles east of The Geysers and 14 miles east of Cloverdale, according to the USGS.
The third earthquake, a 2.2 - magnitude event, struck at around 11:50 p.m., according to the USGS. The quake was centered two miles northeast of The Geysers and 13 miles east of Cloverdale, according to the USGS.
Reference:
http://cbs5.com/localwire/22.0.html?type=bcn&item=THREE-QUAKES-00-38
http://www.monstersandcritics.com/news/southasia/news/article_1508825.php/Earthquake-hits-northern-Pakistan-Afghanistan-India-Roundup
http://cannazine.co.uk/images/stories/afghanistan-images/hindu-kush-mountains.jpg

Statues of 1st Century AD found uncared in paddy fields.

There are many historical spots like this in Jharkhand State of India.

by

Dr. Nitish Priyadarshi

These statues belong to Sun god, Lord Ganesh and Shiv Linga and were found uncared in open paddy fields near Pithoria some 30 kms away from Ranchi the capital of Jharkhand State of India. According to historians these statues belong to 1^st century AD. Villagers regularly perform prayers and this is the only cause that still today these statues are not stolen. Few parts of the statues are broken. This is not the only spot which is uncared; there are lots of historical spots in Jharkhand State which needs immediate attention by the State Government.

250 feet high hill collapsed overnight near Ranchi city of India.

Most of the hills in Jharkhand State are highly weathered.

by

Dr. Nitish Priyadarshi

Fig. Villagers praying the mountain under fear.,

On 8^th October in local news paper one news baffled me. The news stated that a 250 feet high hill vanished in thin air overnight. The incident happened some 50kms away from the Ranchi city, the capital of Jharkhand State of India. Being a geologist I have never heard about such phenomenon of vanishing hills suddenly in recent years or in past especially in Jharkhand State which is free from major earthquakes and Volcanism. Volcanism promotes such types of subsidence. The crumbling of a section of the huge ‘Jumbla’ Mountain Range in the Angara Circle of Ranchi district has posed a question mark on vanishing of 250 feet High Mountain. But the incident has occurred, so I decided to collect the information from different sources and media persons who visited the area.

The on-the-spot survey by some of the electronic media person revealed that the mountain section in question had not vanished but definitely caved in.

According to the reports reaching to me, the debris of the said section of the huge mountain range, in form of huge boulders and scattered pieces of rocks in a vicinity of nearly a kilometer from the peak were strewn. The sleepy village of Rasujara had a night-marish night on the 6^th of October when the entire village heard the hair raising thunders of rocks rumbling with heavy drizzle orchestrating it.

In the worst of their dreams they did not anticipate the scenario of the next morning. The very mountain which acted as their savoir had ‘vanished’ with scattered debris in its place! The small village of Rasujara with a population of less than 200 people was in a state of panic, thinking that the celestial forces were ‘angry’.

But before moving into any conclusion we should understand the rock types and geology of such hills in and around Ranchi district.

Most of the hills in the area has attained old age and are highly weathered. These hills are one of the oldest part of the earth’s crust. All the slopes below the top consists of soil, sediments and rock fragments. Occasionally there are few rock exposures.

Collapse of the hill may be due to weathering aided by mass-wasting forming ‘talus slopes’.

Mass wasting, also known as slope movement or mass movement, is the geomorphic process by which soil, regolith, and rock move downslope under the force of gravity. Types of mass wasting include creep, slides, flows, topples, and falls, each with its own characteristic features, and taking place over timescales from seconds to years.

Mass wasting may occur at a very slow rate, particularly in areas that are very dry or those areas that receive sufficient rainfall such that vegetation has stabilised the surface. It may also occur at very high speed, such as in rock slides or landslides, with disastrous consequences, both immediate and delayed.

The predominant processes that degrade a rock slope depend largely on the regional climate (temperature, amount of rainfall, etc.) and also through Thermal stresses and Topographic stresses.

From first instance it looks that the hill became the culprit of Debris avalanches. Debris Avalanches are very high velocity flows of large volume mixtures of rock and regolith that result from complete collapse of a mountainous slope. They move down slope and then can travel for considerable distances along relatively gentle slopes.

Other theory which can be implemented here that hill may have collapsed due to underground mine fire in the nearby coalfields of Ramgarh and Gola areas. Underground hollow created by mine fire may have put stressed on the highly weathered hill.

What ever may be the cause but it is true that more incidence like this may happen in future especially in Ranchi city where one of the hill, popularly known as Ranchi Hill, has already threatened the local people last year as part of it was affected with landslides.

Some of the other hills are also affected as they are in regular threat by explosives used by the miners for making stone chips for building purposes.

Oxygen content in Ladakh up 50%: Scientists

Anyone visiting Ladakh in India for the first time can be left gasping for breath due to low oxygen levels in the high altitude region. But a successful plantation drive has brought about environmental changes - driving up oxygen content by 50 percent and, most unusually, making it rain, say Indian scientists.

Ladakh is located between the Kunlun mountain range in the north and the Himalayas in the south at a height of nearly 12,000 feet and has a rarefied atmosphere. But scientists of the Defence Institute of High Altitude Research (DIHAR), which is behind the plantation drive, have found a marked increase in oxygen content.

The mountain ranges in this region were formed over a period of 45 million years by the folding of the Indian plate into the more stationary Eurasian Plate. The drift continues, causing frequent earthquakes in the Himalayan region. The peaks in the Ladakh range are at a medium altitude close to the Zoji-la (5,000–5,500 m or 16,000–18,050 ft), and increase towards south-east, reaching a climax in the twin summits of Nun-Kun (7000 m or 23,000 ft).

Ladakh is a high altitude desert as the Himalayas create a rain shadow, denying entry to monsoon clouds. The main source of water is the winter snowfall on the mountains.
Most of the Ladakh region is a cold desert with nearly no vegetation. The oxygen content is much lower than that in the plains.
Fore more information follow the link below.
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/environment/pollution/Oxygen-content-in-Ladakh-up-50-Scientists/articleshow/5111633.cms