A hungrier world- blame it on climate change.

The impact of global warming on agriculture is going to be worse.

By

Dr. Nitish Priyadarshi

On the day you read this, the population of our planet will increase by 230,000 people. Hungry people.

In 2012 about 140 million human beings will be born and some 55 million of us will die. That amounts to a net population gain of 85 million – more than 230,000 additional residents of the earth every day of the year. Many of these newcomers will suckle their meals from a mother’s breast for a year or so, but after that it will be up to Mother Earth to provide them food and drink. Our fragile, over extended planet and its hard working human population will have to feed those 230,000hungry people day after day for the next 66 years.

 

A growing global food shortage has caused prices to double in recent years, and a growing consensus of scientists now blames climate change as one factor in an equation that includes a burgeoning population and increasingly scarce water supplies. More people around the planet are going hungry as a result. 

One in seven people go to bed hungry every night, according to the United Nations World Food Program. Hunger kills more people than AIDS, malaria and tuberculosis combined. The problem is worst in developing countries. 

Two hot spots has been identified —South Asia and southern Africa—where higher temperatures and drops in rainfall could cut yields of the main crops people grow there.

A variable agriculture needs a stable climate. If we cannot anticipate from one year to the next what and when to sow and what sort of harvest to expect because the climate is going through all sorts of unpredictable convulsions, then we are in serious trouble. According to current general circulation models, the worst impact on agriculture will be in Africa, the Middle East and the Indian sub-continent.

If we continue pumping greenhouse gases into the atmosphere and we fail to curb our destruction of the world’s forest, we can expect our crops to shrivel from increased heat-waves and droughts, get them washed away by unprecedented rainstorms and floods, and be ravaged by the spread of pests and weeds.

Climate change is the outcome of the “Global Warming”. It has now started showing its impacts worldwide. Either it is in the form of floods, heavy rain or in a form of drought.

Climate change induced by increasing greenhouse gases is likely to affect crops differently from region to region. For example, average crop yield is expected to drop down to 50% in Pakistan, sunflowers can be affected by severe drought conditions in Australia.

Droughts caused by global climate change have led to a drop in wheat production, a worldwide shortage and high food prices around the world.

Scientists predict that climate change could result in food shortages and poverty for millions who rely on agriculture as a means of income in the Tropics.

Researchers found areas that are already experiencing food shortages due to climate changes could become “hotspots” in the next 40 years meaning the areas will have shorter, hotter or drier growing seasons which could devastate people in parts of Asia, Africa, China, India and South America.  

India’s agriculture is more dependent on monsoon from the ancient periods. Any change in monsoon trend drastically affects agriculture. Human interference has certainly made the Indian monsoon fickle. Even the increasing temperature is affecting the Indian agriculture. A recent study by the Indian Agriculture Research Institute found that increase in temperature by about 2 degrees C “reduced potential (wheat) grain yields in most regions”, and that “overall, temperature increases are predicted to reduce rice yields”, the impact on rice yields being most in eastern India. Even the IPCC, scarcely alarmist, says 0.5 degree C rise in winter temperature would reduce wheat yield by 0.45 tons per hectare in India. And this when Indian agriculture has already pushed into crisis, and 1.5 lakh farmers have committed suicide since 1995.

There has been a major shift in the pattern of rainfall during the south-west monsoon season (from June to September) in recent years. Rainfall over Kerala, Chhattisgarh and Jharkhand has been showing a significant decreasing trend, while that over coastal Andhra Pradesh, Rayalaseema, north interior Karnataka, Madhya Maharashtra, Konkan, Goa and Gangetic West Bengal is showing a significant increasing trend.

Due to global warming intensity and number of cyclones has increased. This is damaging coastal agriculture and livelihoods. Due to global warming there is high influx of water in the Himalayan rivers flowing through Assam, Bihar and West Bengal in eastern India in the form of floods due to melting of  Himalayan glaciers associated with heavy rains in the Himalayas. These floods annually destroy millions of tons of crops.

Drought like situation is also threatening most part of India where scanty and late arrival of monsoon this year is affecting crops and depletion of ground water.

Shortage of rainfall coupled with its erratic distribution during rainy season may cause severe water deficit conditions resulting in various intensities of droughts in India.

The total food grain production in India has to be stepped up from 212 million metric tons to 300 million metric tons by 2020 to meet the food demands of growing population. Therefore, there is a need for effective monitoring of agricultural drought, its onset, progression and impact on crops to minimize the damages. Shortage of drinking water and starvation for food may be the consequences in coming future. 

Since agriculture constitutes a much larger fraction of GDP in developing countries, even a small percentage loss in agricultural productivity would impose a larger proportionate income loss in a developing country than in an industrial country.

A study published in Science suggest that, due to climate change, "southern Africa could lose more than 30% of its main crop, maize, by 2030. In South Asia losses of many regional staples, such as rice, millet and maize could top 10%".

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has produced several reports that have assessed the scientific literature on climate change. The IPCC Third Assessment Report, published in 2001, concluded that the poorest countries would be hardest hit, with reductions in crop yields in most tropical and sub-tropical regions due to decreased water availability, and new or changed insect pest incidence. In Africa and Latin America many rainfed crops are near their maximum temperature tolerance, so that yields are likely to fall sharply for even small climate changes; falls in agricultural productivity of up to 30% over the 21st century are projected. Marine life and the fishing industry will also be severely affected in some places.

IPCC projected that in drier areas of Latin America, productivity of some important crops would decrease and livestock productivity decline, with adverse consequences for food security.

Climate change could also trigger the growth of deserts in southern Africa. A report published in Nature today predicts that as greenhouse gases fuel global warming, the dunes of the Kalahari could begin to spread. By 2099, shifting sands could be blowing across huge tracts of Botswana, Angola, Zimbabwe and western Zambia.

Few years ago severe droughts has badly affected crops in Cuba, Cambodia, Australia, Afghanistan, Vietnam, Morocco, Guatemala, Honduras and Nicaragua. According to the UN's famine early warning system, 16 countries, including Peru, Ecuador and Lesotho, face "unfavourable prospects" with current crops.

In regions of South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa, an estimated 266 million people considered "food-insecure" live in areas that could experience a 5 percent decrease in the growing season over the next 40 years. That, in turn, could significantly affect food yields and food access for people.

Another 170.5 milion people in parts of West Africa, India and China could be "food-insecure" do to the impact of rising temperatures on many crops such as beans, maize and rice, according to the study.  

America's drought threatens a recurrence of the 2008 global food crisis, when soaring prices set off riots and unrest to parts of Africa, the Middle East, and Latin America. Americans face higher food prices at the supermarket because of a drought this summer.

Corn and soybean prices on the futures market have surged to record highs amid the worst drought in half a century, with new crop contracts for corn rising 50 percent since early June and soybeans increasing about 35 percent. More than 60 percent of the continental United States has been under drought and extreme heat conditions.

Sri Lanka banned rice exports until its harvest season next March aiming to stabilise local prices as its major rice-producing area struggles with a prolonged drought. Rice is the staple food in the island nation and any price increase could accelerate the $59 billion economy's inflation. 

The impact of global warming on agriculture is going to be worse. Indeed, all the indications are that our systems of agriculture will be in serious trouble if we follow a ‘business-as-usual’ strategy and do not take immediate measures to reduce our impact on the climate.

References:

Bunyard, P. 1999. A hunger world. The Ecologist, v.29, no.2, pp.86-91.

http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default.asp?page=2012%5C07%5C25%5Cstory_25-7-2012_pg5_24

http://www.brecorder.com/agriculture-a-allied/183/1207604/

http://www.livescience.com/14447-global-food-shortage-urgent-climate-global-warming.html

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2005/jun/30/science.famine

http://news.medill.northwestern.edu/chicago/news.aspx?id=187175

Radioactive gas Radon may affect the people of Ranchi city in India.

Radon problem cannot be ruled out in the houses of Ranchi city in India.

by

Dr. Nitish Priyadarshi

Fig. House build on the rocks in Ranchi city.

Earth has many ways to kill us. We keep on the lookout, and rightly so, for volcanic eruptions, earthquakes, landslides, flooding, cosmic impacts, climate change and falling rocks on the highway. Should we still worry about radon?
You remember radon—that radioactive gas that comes up from the soil and collects in basements and ground floors, sometimes in well water. Radon is a prominent villain in many countries. Blamed for tens of thousands of deaths from lung cancer. Like asbestos, radon was looked at more kindly when it was new, and today it too is more feared than it deserves.

Radon Geology:
To the geologist, radon is interesting, not worrisome. For one thing, radon starts with uranium, which is worth knowing about for its energy content and its important role in the Earth's heat budget.

Uranium turns to lead via a long, slow cascade of nuclear decay, and radon sits at an important point in that process.

Not only does the radon nuclide decay quickly, with a half-life less than four days, but the next four nuclides in the cascade decay with a combined half-life less than an hour. In other words, radon packs a powerful dose of radioactivity, and because it is a gaseous element, it can drift out of the minerals where it forms into the air. Thus it's a good signal of uranium, even for buried deposits.

Humans have always been exposed throughout their period of existence to naturally occurring ionising radiation. Specifically, naturally occurring radionuclides are present in variable amounts in our environment. To assess radiological health hazards, naturally occurring radionuclides are being measured in soil, sand, marble, bricks etc throughout the world.

Terrestrial radiation comes from radioactive elements that were present at the time the earth was formed. They continue to decay and form additional radioactive materials.
Unusual soil composition has increased background radiation twenty-five fold or more in a few areas in the world. Locations with high background radiation in the soil, mainly from uranium, include the Rocky Mountains, Kerala India, coastal regions of Brazil, granite rock areas of France, and the northern Nile Delta.

Seeing the rock types and its mineral composition Radon problem cannot be ruled out in the houses of Ranchi city of Jharkhand State in India. This fact was justified by a published report of Research Reactor Institute, Kyoto University, Japan. According to the report Air-gamma dose rate was 0.30 μSv/h on the surface in the densely populated area in the city. In Ranchi the concentration of K-40 (potassium-40) and thorium is high. Concentration of Radium-226 was 75 Bq/Kg in the soils.

Very interesting thing in the Ranchi city is that name of one of its major road is RADIUM ROAD. Till today no body knows from where did this name came from. Name of this road exists from the British rule in India i.e. before 1947.

Seeing the presence of apatite, sphene and zircon in the Ranchi rocks, presence of Uranium cannot be ruled out. According to the report Uranium concentration is also high in Ranchi. All these concentrations are of natural origin. Radioactivity in the bricks made by the local soil may pose threat to the people living in the houses made by these bricks.

When Uranium is there, presence of Radon cannot be ruled out. It is radioactive gas that comes up from the soil and collects in basements and ground floors, sometimes in well water. Radon is a prominent villain in the United States, blamed for tens of thousands of deaths from lung cancer.
Even the granites of the Daltonganj area of Jharkhand state contain anomalous uranium values. Uranium mineralization has also been observed in the granitic rocks comprising the southern periphery of the Hutar basin of Daltonganj area. The Proterozoic granitoids, forming the provenance for the Hutar and Auranga subbasin, have been analyzed which revealed uranium content up to 520 ppm. ( Virnave, 1999).
The radon in home indoor air can come from two sources, the soil or water supply. The radon in water supply poses an inhalation risk and an ingestion risk. Research has shown that risk of lung cancer from breathing radon in air is much larger than the risk of stomach cancer from swallowing water with radon in it. Most of the risk from radon in water comes from radon released into the air when water is used for showering and other household purposes.
Radon in home water in not usually a problem when its source is surface water. A radon in water problem is more likely when its source is ground water, e.g., a private well or a public water supply system that uses ground water.
From last several years people of Ranchi are becoming more dependent on ground water for their daily uses. Indiscriminate deep borings are rampant in the granite rocks of Ranchi city. People are going more and more deeper for search for water.
People of Jharkhand state are unaware of danger from Radon gas.
Radon loves fractures because they set it free. Solid mineral grains are a pretty good trap for gases, but break the grains and the gas escapes. So just having rocks rich in uranium is not enough—they must be fractured, too.
Ranchi rocks are filled with fractures and joints. Ground waters are mined through these fractures and joints. So threat of Radon Poisoning looms large in Ranchi city.

Even the houses build on the rocks filled with cracks and fractures are under threat of Radon poisoning inside the house. Most of the radon indoors is contributed by the ground underneath buildings.
The amount of radon entering buildings from the ground is influenced by the following four factors.

a) Radon concentrations in soil gas: This depends on the concentration of the immediate precursor of Rn-222, Ra-226, in rocks and soils. Elevated levels of radium are found in some granites, limestone's and sandstone's and other geologies.

b) Permeability of the ground: This depends on the nature of the rock and soil under the building Disturbed ground can have greatly increased permeability. Usually the radon comes from the ground within a few metres of the building, but if the ground is particularly permeable or fissured it may come from a greater distance.

c) Entry routes into homes: Concrete floors often have cracks around the edges and gaps around services entries such as mains water supply, electricity or sewage pipes. If homes have suspended timber floors the gaps between the floorboards are the major route of entry. Pathways for soil gas to enter houses are often concealed, and vary between apparently identical houses.

d) Under-pressure of homes: Atmospheric pressure is usually lower indoors than outdoors owning to the warm indoor air rising; this creates a gentle suction at ground level in the building through the so-called `stack effect'. Wind blowing across chimneys and windows can also create an under-pressure (the `Bernoulli effect'). The result is that the building draws in outside air, typically at the rate of one air change per hour. Most of this inflow comes through doors and windows, but perhaps 1% or so comes from the ground. In an average house, this amounts to a couple of cubic metres of soil gas entering the house each hour. The radon concentration in a building depends on the rate of entry of the radon and the rate at which it is removed by ventilation. Increasing the ventilation rate will not always decrease the radon concentrations, however, because ventilation rate and under-pressure are related, and some ways of increasing ventilation, such as the use of extract fans or opening upstairs windows, can also increase the under-pressure.

Recently high concentrations of radioactive gas radon have been detected in Bengalooru’s groundwater, which means a higher risk of stomach cancer for those who drink it.A team from the Bangalore University and the Baba Atomic Research Centre in Mumbai collected 78 samples of water from bore wells, shallow wells, surface water and the supplied drinking water in Bengalooru. More than half the samples contained radon in concentrations up to a thousand times the permissible limit of 11.1 Becquerel per litre.

In the case of Bengalooru (old name Bangalore) it is the large reserves of granite that is causing the problem. Being highly soluble, radon easily dissolves in groundwater. The rate at which radon is released from rocks depends on the porosity of the rocks and the intensity of water flow.
Radon is a cancer-causing natural radioactive gas that we can’t see, smell or taste. Its presence in the home can pose a danger to family's health. Radon is the leading cause of lung cancer among non-smokers. Radon is the second leading cause of lung cancer in America and claims about 20,000 lives annually.
Any home can have a radon problem. This means new and old homes, well-sealed and drafty homes, and homes with or without basements. In fact, people and their family are most likely to get greatest radiation exposure at home. That is where they spend most of their time. Jharkhand government should come forward to analyze the amount of Radon present in groundwater and in the air inside the house.
Sources:
Virnave, S.N. Nuclear Geology and Atomic Mineral Resources. Bharati Bhawan, Patna. 169.
http://www.epa.gov/iaq/radon/
http://www.epa.gov/radon/healthrisks.html
http://www.epa.gov/radon/pubs/hmbyguid.html#6.
http://www.radonguide.com/sources-of-radon-in-buildings.html
http://www.downtoearth.org.in/full6.asp?foldername=20090215&filename=news&sec_id=4&sid=21