Thursday, March 18, 2010

Global warming controversy.

Can we predict effects of climate change with accuracy?
by
Dr. Nitish Priyadarshi
Recently all the newspaper of world was heated up with the discussions about the so called glaciers melting of Himalayas by 2035, from IPCC. Other prediction was about Amazon rain forests. The IPCC maintained that there would be a huge depletion in Amazon rain forests because of lack of precipitation. There are many more predictions given by IPCC which I think that they are over exaggerated and could not be believed. Regarding glaciers melting by 2035, it is now being defended as a minor error (it was originally meant to be 2350, some have clarified).

The global warming controversy is a dispute regarding the nature, causes, and consequences of global warming. The disputed issues include the causes of increased global average air temperature, especially since the mid-20th century, whether this warming trend is unprecedented or within normal climatic variations, whether humankind has contributed significantly to it, and whether the increase is wholly or partially an artifact of poor measurements. Additional disputes concern estimates of climate sensitivity, predictions of additional warming, and what the consequences of global warming will be. The controversy is significantly more pronounced in the popular media than in the scientific literature, which generally asserts that recent global warming trends have been significantly influenced by human activity.

It is not the question that how much we can believe on such predictions, but the question is can we predict the effects of global warming or climate change with accuracy? The way the increasing trend of global warming is shown or predicted, it seems that in coming 30 to 40 years earth will be totally devoid of any life and earth will die. I don’t think so. It is also true that earth is warming but not in the way it is shown but the warming trend of the earth is similar to that in geological past. Even most of the effects of the warming or climate change forecasted have failed. Regarding effects of global warming, I would like to quote one example form my state of Jharkhand in India. From last fifteen years we are predicting that in coming five years Jharkhand will be devoid of groundwater, but still the groundwater is there. Though it is depleting but not in the way we have predicted. Main cause of the depletion of the ground water level is due to over exploitation, and that is only for few months. In every rainy season groundwater level comes up.

Is really global warming is there or we are just exaggerating it? It is said that main cause of the global warming is due to increase in carbon dioxide level in the atmosphere. Between 1940 and 1970, global temperatures went down slightly, even though carbon dioxide levels went up. This has been attributed to the cooling effect of sulphate aerosols.
Studies of ice cores show that carbon dioxide levels rise and fall with or after (as much as 1000 years) temperature variations. This argument assumes that current climate change can be expected to be similar to past climate change.


Seeing this year cold waves in India and heavy snow cover in total Northern Hemisphere common people put the question mark on the global warming concept. . If we believe on the scientific evidences about the climates in the past geological history we have passed through different hot periods greater than today. So global warming is not recent phenomenon and also we can’t stop it.
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