The impact of global warming on agriculture is going
to be worse.
By
Dr. Nitish Priyadarshi
On the day you read this, the population of our planet will
increase by 230,000 people. Hungry people.
In 2012 about 140 million human beings will be born and some
55 million of us will die. That amounts to a net population gain of 85 million
– more than 230,000 additional residents of the earth every day of the year.
Many of these newcomers will suckle their meals from a mother’s breast for a
year or so, but after that it will be up to Mother Earth to provide them food
and drink. Our fragile, over extended planet and its hard working human
population will have to feed those 230,000hungry people day after day for the next
66 years.
A growing global food shortage has caused prices to double
in recent years, and a growing consensus of scientists now blames climate
change as one factor in an equation that includes a burgeoning population and
increasingly scarce water supplies. More people around the planet are going
hungry as a result.
One in seven people go to bed hungry every night, according
to the United Nations World Food Program. Hunger kills more people than AIDS,
malaria and tuberculosis combined. The problem is worst in developing
countries.
Two hot spots has been identified —South Asia and southern Africa —where higher temperatures and drops in rainfall
could cut yields of the main crops people grow there.
A variable agriculture needs a stable climate. If we cannot
anticipate from one year to the next what and when to sow and what sort of
harvest to expect because the climate is going through all sorts of
unpredictable convulsions, then we are in serious trouble. According to current
general circulation models, the worst impact on agriculture will be in Africa,
the Middle East and the Indian sub-continent.
If we continue pumping greenhouse gases into the atmosphere
and we fail to curb our destruction of the world’s forest, we can expect our
crops to shrivel from increased heat-waves and droughts, get them washed away
by unprecedented rainstorms and floods, and be ravaged by the spread of pests
and weeds.
Climate change is the outcome of the “Global Warming”. It
has now started showing its impacts worldwide. Either it is in the form of
floods, heavy rain or in a form of drought.
Climate change
induced by increasing greenhouse gases is likely to affect crops
differently from region to region. For example, average crop yield is expected
to drop down to 50% in Pakistan ,
sunflowers can be affected by severe drought conditions in Australia .
Droughts caused by global climate change have led to a drop
in wheat production, a worldwide shortage and high food prices around the
world.
Scientists predict that climate change could result in food
shortages and poverty for millions who rely on agriculture as a means of income
in the Tropics.
Researchers found areas that are already experiencing food
shortages due to climate changes could become “hotspots” in the next 40 years
meaning the areas will have shorter, hotter or drier growing seasons which
could devastate people in parts of Asia, Africa, China ,
India and South
America .
There has been a major shift in the pattern of rainfall
during the south-west monsoon season (from June to September) in recent years. Rainfall
over Kerala, Chhattisgarh and Jharkhand has been showing a significant
decreasing trend, while that over coastal Andhra Pradesh, Rayalaseema, north
interior Karnataka, Madhya Maharashtra, Konkan, Goa
and Gangetic West Bengal is showing a significant increasing trend.
Due to global warming intensity and number of cyclones has
increased. This is damaging coastal agriculture and livelihoods. Due to global
warming there is high influx of water in the Himalayan rivers flowing through Assam , Bihar and West Bengal in eastern India in the form of floods due to melting of Himalayan glaciers associated with heavy
rains in the Himalayas . These floods annually
destroy millions of tons of crops.
Drought like situation is also threatening most part of India
where scanty and late arrival of monsoon this year is affecting crops and
depletion of ground water.
Shortage of rainfall coupled with its erratic distribution
during rainy season may cause severe water deficit conditions resulting in various
intensities of droughts in India .
The total food grain production in India has to be
stepped up from 212 million metric tons to 300 million metric tons by 2020 to
meet the food demands of growing population. Therefore, there is a need for
effective monitoring of agricultural drought, its onset, progression and impact
on crops to minimize the damages. Shortage of drinking water and
starvation for food may be the consequences in coming future.
Since agriculture constitutes a much larger fraction of GDP
in developing countries, even a small percentage loss in agricultural
productivity would impose a larger proportionate income loss in a developing
country than in an industrial country.
A study published
in Science suggest that, due to climate change, "southern Africa could lose more than 30% of its main crop, maize,
by 2030. In South Asia losses of many regional
staples, such as rice, millet and maize could top 10%".
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change (IPCC) has produced several reports that have assessed
the scientific literature on climate change. The IPCC Third
Assessment Report, published in 2001, concluded that the poorest countries
would be hardest hit, with reductions in crop yields in most tropical and
sub-tropical regions due to decreased water availability, and new or changed
insect pest incidence. In Africa and Latin America
many rainfed crops are near their maximum temperature tolerance, so that yields
are likely to fall sharply for even small climate changes; falls in
agricultural productivity of up to 30% over the 21st century are projected.
Marine life and the fishing industry will also be severely affected in some
places.
IPCC projected that in drier areas of Latin
America , productivity of some important crops would decrease and
livestock productivity decline, with adverse consequences for food security.
Climate change could also trigger the growth of deserts in
southern Africa . A report published in Nature
today predicts that as greenhouse gases fuel global warming, the dunes of the
Kalahari could begin to spread. By 2099, shifting sands could be blowing across
huge tracts of Botswana , Angola , Zimbabwe
and western Zambia .
Few years ago severe droughts has badly affected crops in Cuba , Cambodia ,
Australia , Afghanistan , Vietnam ,
Morocco , Guatemala , Honduras
and Nicaragua .
According to the UN's famine early warning system, 16 countries, including Peru , Ecuador
and Lesotho ,
face "unfavourable prospects" with current crops.
In regions of South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa ,
an estimated 266 million people considered "food-insecure" live in
areas that could experience a 5 percent decrease in the growing season over the
next 40 years. That, in turn, could significantly affect food yields and food
access for people.
Another 170.5 milion people in parts ofWest Africa ,
India and China could be
"food-insecure" do to the impact of rising temperatures on many crops
such as beans, maize and rice, according to the study.
Another 170.5 milion people in parts of
Corn and soybean prices on the futures market have surged to record highs amid
the worst drought in half a century, with new crop contracts for corn rising 50
percent since early June and soybeans increasing about 35 percent. More than 60
percent of the continental United
States has been under drought and extreme
heat conditions.
The impact of global warming on agriculture is going to be
worse. Indeed, all the indications are that our systems of agriculture will be
in serious trouble if we follow a ‘business-as-usual’ strategy and do not take
immediate measures to reduce our impact on the climate.
References:
Bunyard, P. 1999. A hunger world. The Ecologist, v.29, no.2,
pp.86-91.
http://news.medill.northwestern.edu/chicago/news.aspx?id=187175
1 comment:
Thanks for sharing such an interesting post on the impact of global warming on agriculture in Kerala. Predictions of the 2012 are really true. Food shortage has caused hike in prices in recent years. Climate change is the outcome of the Global Warming which is now started showing there impacts in many other countries. Scientists considered food-insecure in areas which could experience a loss of 5% in coming years. Sri-lankans stopped rice export because of major issue of food shortage. We really have to do something against global warming. Keep on Sharing such informative post. Market Analysis
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